Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Hillary's Nuclear Option: a McCain - Clinton Ticket




They say politics makes strange bedfellows, and it is beginning to look to me like Hillary is planning a sleepover at John McCain's house. Don't think so? Consider the facts. Hillary desperately wants to be president, but has virtually no chance of getting the Democratic nomination. She also thinks that Obama cannot beat McCain. McCain also desperately wants to be president, but having alienated conservatives with his "maverick" shtick, and then having alienated the rest of the country by embracing Bush policies across the board, such as torture and the war in Iraq, he has to be more than a little concerned about Obama.

So what one option is in both of their interests? A joint ticket. Hillary probably views it as a necessary evil. In her mind, since Obama can't win, and we're going to be stuck with a McCain presidency regardless, it would be better to have her along as VP to help moderate the administration. In her view, she could maybe make a difference, and pad her resume for a 2012 run. As a bonus, McCain's advanced age and questionable health could leave her as president if McCain buys the farm.

For McCain, facing the Obama juggernaut, a joint ticket would be the ultimate tack to the center, presenting a "unity" ticket. As over 1/4 of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain if Hillary doesn't win the nomination, it seems reasonable to think that if Clinton were on the ticket, McCain would pick up an even larger segment of Clinton supporters. This could provide the boost McCain needs to avoid likely defeat at the hands of Obama. Having approached the Kerry campaign in 2004 to float the possibility of a Kerry-McCain ticket, it is likely that McCain has already done the joint-ticket calculus. So is it really possible? Is there any evidence that it could be in the works? The actions of the Clinton campaign lately seem to say yes.

Back on March 6th, Hillary praised John McCain's credentials, saying that he has crossed the "commander-in-chief threshold," and has a "lifetime of experience". More recently, Bill Clinton praised McCain and subtly attacked Obama's patriotism, saying that he thought it "it would be a great thing if we had an election year where you had two people who loved this country and were devoted to the interest of this country," referring to McCain and Hillary. Further, if this report is to be believed, the Clinton campaign has had "substantive talks" with the McCain people on a strategy to stop Obama. Why would the Clintons build up McCain if they believed they could be running against him?

Paranoia? Maybe. But just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not after you.

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